Read my week 10 picks here.
9:18 am ET – Sign on the first hour of Gameday: Dalton is a daywalker. I’m loving the TCU/Utah rivalry more and more.
Record after week nine: 96-44 (69-68-3 ATS)
12 pm ET
Illinois (5-3) at Michigan (5-3) (-3)
Final: Michigan 67 Illinois 65
Michigan is very bad at defense. That is all.
Record: 97-44 (69-69-3 ATS)
(16) Iowa (6-2) at Indiana (4-4) (+17.5)
Pick: Iowa wins but doesn’t cover
Final: Iowa 18 Indiana 13
I have to hand it to Indiana’s defense and offensive line. They did very, very well until the fourth quarter. Once that began, Iowa tore IU a new one and won the game.
I also would hand it to Damarlo Belcher, but he’d probably drop it, just like he dropped the winning touchdown on fourth and ten with 35 seconds left. And it was a straight drop, in case you weren’t watching. No one tipped it and his defender was only a slight nuisance. Belcher straight dropped the ball, thus creating a microcosm of the last two years of Indiana football.
An upset against Wisconsin or Penn State isn’t out of the question, and Purdue is awful, but this loss most likely signifies the end of Indiana’s bowl hopes for yet another year. It’s impossible to tell if it’s the end of Bill Lynch’s tenure as well.
Record: 98-44 (70-69-3 ATS)
Louisville (4-4) at Syracuse (6-2) (-6)
Pick: Syracuse wins but doesn’t cover
Final: Louisville 28 Syracuse 20
Okay, so it wasn’t going to be a miraculous season for Syracuse, just a good one. I like what Charlie Strong is up to in Louisville, though the Cardinals could have kept Kragthorpe and gone 5-4. It just would have been even uglier.
Record: 98-45 (71-69-3 ATS)
Air Force (5-4) at Army (5-3) (+7)
Pick: Air Force
Final: USAFA 42 USMA 20
Congratulations to the science nerds from Colorado Springs on winning the Commander in Chief’s trophy for the first time under Troy Calhoun. Hopefully, this allows coach Calhoun to feel as though he has accomplished enough at Air Force and is ready to move on to Indiana.
Record: 99-45 (72-69-3 ATS)
12:30 pm ET
(21) Baylor (7-2) at (17) Oklahoma State (7-1) (-8)
Pick: Oklahoma State wins but doesn’t cover
Final: OSU 55 Baylor 28
Saw that one coming a mile away for Baylor. Didn’t think they’d get smoked like that though. I was wondering whether Illinois fan should be happy with their results, but Baylor fan DEFINITELY should be happy with 7-3 and probably even if they don’t win another game.
Record: 100-45 (72-70-3 ATS)
3:30 pm ET
(6) Alabama (7-1) at (10) Louisiana State (7-1) (+6.5)
Final: LSU 24 Bama 21
Try as they might, Alabama just can’t overcome not having the same defense they had last year. There is no way LSU would score 24 points on last year’s ‘Bama defense.
Anyway, this loss helps Boise State and TCU out immensely. Now we just need Auburn or Oregon to go down. The way the SEC East is playing this year, we’d better hope it’s going to be Oregon.
Record: 100-46 (72-71-3 ATS)
Hawai’i (7-2) at (4) Boise State (7-0) (-21)
Pick: Boise State
Final: Boise 42 Hawai’i 7
Holding serve again. Can’t lose. Can’t win close with anyone. This is the most pressure any team has ever faced, and, by God, they’re meeting expectations. Wonder if they’ll be able to do the same in the Mountain West.
Record: 101-46 (73-71-3 ATS)
(3) Texas Christian (9-0) at (5) Utah (8-0) (+5)
Final: TCU 47 Utah 7
Same for TCU as Boise, but they beat Utah before the talking heads could pooh pooh the Utes and downgrade the victory. Just watch. At least half of them will say they’re shocked and maybe Utah isn’t as good as they thought.
Record: 102-46 (74-71-3 ATS)
Northwestern (6-2) at Pennsylvania State (5-3) (-6)
Pick: Penn State wins but doesn’t cover
Didn’t want to watch it. Didn’t watch it. Don’t care about the game. Congratulations to Joe Paterno. This record will never, ever be broken.
Record: 103-46 (74-72-3 ATS)
North Carolina (5-3) at (24) Florida State (6-2) (-10.5)
Pick: Florida State wins but doesn’t cover
Final: UNC 37 FSU 35
Speaking of bad defenses, Florida State isn’t very far behind Michigan. And regardless of how this season has gone, UNC is going to have to think long and hard about firing Butch Davis anyway.
Record: 103-47 (75-72-3 ATS)
5 pm ET
(23) Nevada (7-1) at Idaho (4-4) (+11.5)
Final: Nevada 63 Idaho 17
This is the team that is going to give Boise State more credibility. It would have been nicer if they were undefeated, but one loss will do. If it means getting Boise into the title game, I would gladly sacrifice my favorite non-AQ team to do it. Sorry, Nevada.
Record: 104-47 (76-72-3 ATS)
7 pm ET
Oregon State (4-3) at UC,LA (3-5) (+5)
Pick: Oregon State
Final: UC,LA 17 Oregon State 14
And the Bruins win a classic Mike Riley game, though maybe it’s classic lite since it wasn’t an incredibly better team that Oregon State played close with. But there’s still a reason we call it the Mike Riley game. Dude invented it.
Record: 104-48 (76-73-3 ATS)
(18) Arkansas (6-2) at (19) South Carolina (6-2) (-4.5)
Final: Arkansas 41 USC 20
I don’t know. With Alabama/LSU today, did many people care about this game? Though we’re free to let the gambling begin about whether it’ll be Andrew Luck or Ryan Mallett that’s taken first.
Record: 105-48 (77-73-3 ATS)
8 pm ET
(15) Arizona (7-1) at (13) Stanford (7-1) (-8.5)
Final: Stanford 42 Arizona 17
Say what you want about the Oregon game (and there’s quite a bit to say about the officiating that day), but Stanford is pretty fucking good. Michigan would be insane to not take a run at Jim Harbaugh this offseason.
Record: 106-48 (78-73-3 ATS)
Texas (4-4) at Kansas State (5-3) (+3.5)
Final: Kansas State 39 Texas 14
I thought I was being punked when I saw this score. Turns out it was Texas getting punked. There is no way Mack Brown comes back after this year. He won’t be forced out, he’ll just have had enough. The team has quit on the coaches. Worst team in his tenure in Austin. If he doesn’t bail after this, Will Muschamp will definitely be on the market.
Record: 106-49 (78-74-3 ATS)
(12) Missouri (7-1) at Texas Tech (4-4) (+4.5)
Final: Texas Tech 24 Missouri 17
Why is the Big XII trying so hard to take away whatever credibility their conference champion will have? Missouri ran from the North title faster than Usain Bolt. Iowa State almost took down Nebraska today. And everyone in the South is losing to each other and beating Texas. After today, no one-loss team is going to have a shot at the BCS title game. Hopefully.
Record: 106-50 (78-75-3 ATS)
10:30 pm ET
Arizona State (4-4) at Southern California (5-3) (-5.5)
Final: USC 34 ASU 33
Holy crap is USC bad at closing out games. Lane Kiffin gets a lot of credit as a playcaller, but what about USC’s inability to hang on to the ball late in the fourth instead of letting Arizona have two different shots at coming all the way back?
Record after week 10: 107-50 (78-76-3 ATS)