Damn, under .500 again. That overall record makes me feel a little better though. Playing .710 ball just picking the winners isn’t too bad though, given the unpredictability of college football and several other typical excuses. Time for the home stretch….
Northwestern (7-3) at Michigan (3-7) (-3.5)
Though this game has given us a few thrillers over the years, though it’s mostly been a Michigan blowout. Wildcats fans have a reason to be positive heading into Michigan stadium Saturday, though. The Wolverines are guaranteed not to go to a bowl game for the first time in thirty-odd years and Northwestern isn’t half bad. There are a few “if’s” for the Big Ten’s smarter little brother, however. IF C.J. Bacher plays and is good, IF their defense doesn’t melt down like it has against a couple of other spread teams (like Indiana), and IF they can believe their eyes that Michigan really is that bad, then Northwestern can win. Will it happen? I don’t know. What am I, some kind of pick…making…guy who like writes about who he picks? Good day, sir! I said good day!
Update: Northwestern 21 Michigan 14.
Bacher played for Northwestern and now Michigan has their worst season ever. The depression is pervasive in Wolverine-land. Somehow Tressel landed Terrelle Pryor and it’s difficult to name any of Michigan’s incoming recruits unless you obsessively look at all the recruiting websites like Phillips.
But how did Michigan fan think they were just going to stay good and have a seamless transition from one polar opposite philosophy to another? Like half the players left the program when Carr did and the rest have no idea how to run Rodriguez’s offense. Plus, the program did kind of pull a Nebraska when they let Carr resign. They ran out a coach after a 9-4 program that wasn’t “reaching expectations.” In other words, the boosters got greedy and wanted a national title with no basis in reality for that belief. It’s a major thing that program is doing. Anyone who thought they’d win seven or eight games this season with such a low level of talent is absolutely insane and should be banned from being a Michigan fan. This is the type of fan that thinks their team can win the national title every year and why college football is getting out of hand.
Record: 119-49, 81-84-5 ATS
Indiana (3-7) at (8) Penn State (9-1) (-35)
“Big Ten bottom-feeder Indiana.” Now that sounds more like a typical Indiana season. Guess things are back to normal. Hooray for the staus quo! Let’s just try not to give up 70 points, okay guys?
What a shockingly depressing turn of events for Indiana. I, for one, refuse to give in to the above mindset, though many Indiana fans never left it. After all, unless you’re playing for something important, Hoosier fan just isn’t there in large numbers. It’s the Fairweather State, only it has shitty weather. I still expect this team to play well against Penn State. I don’t care if we’ve looked worse than a couple of the top Indiana high schools. I don’t care that we’re injured. And I sure as hell don’t are how good Penn State is. This IU football team needs to have some pride and self-respect before this season ends. It starts Saturday.
I also learned an amazing statistic: the Hoosiers rank 34th in rushing offense at 175.8 yards per game. That’s only one spot behind Ohio State. OHIO STATE! I’ve watched every one of their games, and I have no idea how the hell that happened.
As for Penn State, all they have to do is win their last couple of games and they get to go to the Rose Bowl to play…Oregon State…again. That is, unless the Beavers lose at some point. Then JoePa’s unit gets USC. I think I know which one Nittany Lions fans are rooting for.
Pick: Penn State
Update: Penn State 34 Indiana 7.
I didn’t really think Indiana would win, but I am happy they managed to beat the spread. There aren’t any moral victories in football except when your team is 3-7 and playing the former #3 team on the road. Plus we were five touchdown underdogs. So I’d say 34 points is pretty damn good.
Now IU is heading into the Bucket Game against Purdue and that bitch is a must-win. Purdue is gawd-awful and no matter how terribly our season is gone, this program and its fans have a level of self-respect that simply cannot take losing to that shit Purdue team even if it is Joe Tiller’s last game. I refuse to believe Indiana is reverting back to their old ways. We’re better than this.
Record: 120-49, 81-85-5 ATS
(11) Ohio State (8-2) at Illinois (5-5) (+9.5)
One of the annoying trends of 2008 is Illinois is way worse than last year’s team, except they aren’t. They’re not any worse, they just don’t have any ground game anymore, which you would expect to happen since Rashard Mendenhall left. They have some capable successors, but none are ready for that spotlight yet. Hence Juice Williams chucking the ball everywhere even though he was a zone-read option quarterback just 365 days ago.
Speaking of zone-read guys, Terrelle Pryor doesn’t suck. He’s not great yet, but he’s only a freshman. Beanie Wells would get his yards no matter what system the Buckeyes ran, but Pryor makes the offense a real threat and very difficult to predict. Or it would if Jim Tressel weren’t trying to reign it in all the time.
For this game, Illinois is going to end up throwing a lot, and Williams hasn’t been very efficient or safe with the ball. There are a couple of turnovers coming Ohio State’s way, and they usually win when that happens. It might not be a blowout, but it’s very hard to see Illinois doing enough damage to win this one.
Pick: Ohio State wins but Illinois beats the spread.
Update: Ohio State 30 Illinois 20.
Illinois did it again. They gained a ton of yards and scored some points, but they screwed up so much they had no shot at winning. Ohio State did their very best imitation of the game plan that lost them the last two national championships: run the ball, then run it some more, then run it some more. If Illinois hadn’t played like a team coached by Ron Zook, they might have had a shot at this thing. Must be weird for them knowing the best they can do is go 6-6 and pray for a bowl win. And that sixth win isn’t even guaranteed, since they have to win a rivalry game over Northwestern. Gotta love a season in which a win over Northwestern isn’t a sure thing.
Record: 121-49, 81-86-5 ATS
Purdue (3-7) at Iowa (6-4) (-18)
I have like 10% more respect for Purdue in this game now that Iowa beat Penn State last week. College football is all about talent, momentum, and emotion. Only the Hawkeyes have talent in this game, but Purdue has nothing to lose (except the Old Oaken Bucket in a week or two!). Plus, the Boilers can take advantage of a huge letdown game for Iowa, who is almost guaranteed to come out flat.
On the other hand, my increase in respect for Purdue still gives them only a 10% chance of winning this game. The Boilermakers haven’t quit on Joe Tiller, they were never talented in the first place. Kory Sheets is good enough, but teams don’t have to fear any other offensive player on that team. The team just isn’t very good, and Tiller hasn’t been recruiting well, so it’s obvious why he’s retiring.
Pick: Iowa wins but Purdue beats the spread.
Update: Iowa 22 Purdue 17.
I think I can officially say “Shonn Greene for Heisman” and not be hooted out of the room by people who want to point out his team is terrible. I’d also like to express my respect for my Halfway-Heisman Trophy winner, Javon Ringer, who has played admirably with a supporting cast as crappy as Greene’s. I’m also assuming I can expect thanks from Kirk Ferentz at any time for successfully hexing his team into a wildly successful season (by Iowa’s standards) because I picked them last in the Big Ten this year. Let’s also temper expectations for the Hawkeyes’ future since they did play close with Purdue and almost lost the game before Painter’s pass fell incomplete. Greene is good, but any team that runs the ball that much is going to play a ton of close games and lose a few of them sooner or later.
Record: 122-49, 82-86-5 ATS
Notre Dame (5-4) at Navy (6-3) (+4) Baltimore, MD
Charlie Weis’s job is not on the line. It is if they lose to Navy again. But it’s not on the line yet. Still, it’s never a good sign when the brand new AD has to talk to the press about how a coach’s job isn’t in jeopardy. How awesome a name is Jack Swarbrick, by the way? Sounds like a secret agent/pirate/fighter pilot.
Look, Domers. Your team should win this game. They have no excuses. Yes, Navy took advantage of a down year in 2007, but the team doesn’t suck like that anymore. They’re back to that level of mediocrity for which Notre Dame has become synonymous. Besides, how else are you going to lose another bowl game if you don’t win this one and one of the other cream puff games on the schedule? Get it done before you play USC, that’s the best advice I can give.
Pick: Notre Dame
Update: Notre Dame 27 Navy 21.
What did I tell you, Notre Dame fan? Your team isn’t back. They’re still crap, they just manage to not lose to teams they shouldn’t lose to. The offensive line is garbage, the running backs are soft, Clausen has no time to throw, and the defense is just slow and awful. It’s a slow death, knowing USC is coming on the schedule soon. Know that Notre Dame is going to get their asses kicked and the Charlie Weis Era will be in full-blown Gerry Faust territory. Be afraid. Be very afrad.
Record: 123-49, 83-86-5 ATS
(10) Georgia (8-2) at Auburn (5-5) (+9.5)
Your Nelson Muntz Award for Excellence in Underachieving winners, Georgia, take on a team that ought to be looking for a new coach in a few weeks, Auburn. Nothing says “awesome Saturday” like watching the matchup between these two enormously disappointing programs.
Nothing against Auburn, but they have no shot in this game. Oh, Georgia will hang around for a while and the Tigers might get a freebie or two from Stafford, but how the hell is Auburn’s ultra-crappy offense going to score against Georgia’s classically crappy defense? They couldn’t even muster 30 points against West Fucking Virginia. West Virginia! Guess maybe going away from the spread wasn’t such a great idea after all, coach. The team couldn’t score last year, yet the same offensive coaches from last year are the answer to this year’s problems? How does that work? I hope Auburn fan realizes how big an epic fail this season truly is for their team.
Update: Georgia 17 Auburn 13.
Thanks for the ugly game pretending to be a “defensive battle” and a “classic matchup of SEC powers.” Terrible game. Just terrible. Then again, we can expect that from these two teams. Auburn’s horrible-ness is well documented, as is Tommy Tuberville’s need to resign and let some one else set offensive football back 30 years on The Plains.
As for Georgia, well, they’re back to the mediocrity Bulldogs fans can expect. They hinted at breaking through last year, but Mark Richt teams just don’t play the kind of football that’s always successful or, you know, fun to watch. Knowshon is good, but I can’t wait for a team to get Matt Stafford and realize he has no idea how to do anything but throw the ball hard and deep. Georgia football: your winners of the Nelson Muntz HA-HA Award for Excellence in Underachieving.
Record: 124-49, 83-87-5 ATS
(16) North Carolina (7-2) at Maryland (6-3) (+3)
So Stats LLC is telling me UNC’s defense is garbage and Maryland is money at home and have beaten three top 25 teams this year by an average of 12.3 points. Just a great sign for the Tar Heels as they try not to screw the pooch in the stretch run of what could be their best season in a hell of a long time.
That doesn’t mean I’m off the bandwagon. There’s something about this team, especially now that they beat Georgia Tech, a team that’s a tough curveball for most up-and-coming teams to deal with. Hakeem Nicks is nice, though he’s the only guy Maryland has to seriously cover, and the Tar Heels can run the ball a little. But what this team lacks in overall talent, they make up for it in big plays at key times. They’re clutch. Have been most of the season, and this is exactly the kind of game a clutch team should win close. I know Maryland is good, but they aren’t that good and have some major holes other teams have inexplicably failed to exploit. If UNC can avoid their own mistakes and keep Maryland one-dimensional (either passing or running), this is a Tar Heel win and huh-yoooooge step forward for North Carolina.
Pick: North Carolina
Update: Maryland 17 UNC 15.
I was watching this game, but I slept through the end of this game, but I should have known better. Maryland is money against ranked teams for some reason, and you can’t ignore history and momentum in college football. As for UNC, well, it’s still their most successful season in recent history, but this is a bad loss. Teams that are building have trouble with mediocre but resilient teams like Maryland. The kind of solid, consistent football it takes to win those games just doesn’t show up on a game to game basis for teams in North Carolina’s position. Tonight, the Tar Heels and their fans are talking themselves into 7-3. Have fun with that, guys.
Record: 124-50, 83-88-5 ATS
California (6-3) at Oregon State (6-3) (-3.5)
This is the exact kind of game Mike Riley teams lose. The Beavers are up against a vulnerable but talented conference opponent that is roughly as good as Oregon State is, but whom Mike Riley’s boys should beat anyway. But this is Mike Riley we’re talking about. State will come out flat, Cal will get a decent but not too big lead, and then the Beavers will stage a furious comeback before falling right at the end. It’s in the cards. It’s done and there goes the Rose Bowl. OSU fan must be more tense than me getting ready for a date with Sarah Shahi.
Nice job by Jeff Tedford throwing a monkey wrench into the season by messing around with his quarterbacks. I know Nate Longshore sucks, but it’s not like Kevin Riley is light years better than him. Longshore actually looked halfway decent, but to yank him at halftime against USC for a deer-in-headlights Riley was ridiculous. Cal wasn’t winning that game no matter how shitty the Trojan offense looked, so quit blaming Longshore. I hate it when coaches pull this crap. The Golden Bears just have to stop Jacquizz Rodgers and they’re golden. Yeah, and I’m just seven inches and a cannon arm away from being Ben Roethlisberger.
Update: Oregon State 34 Cal 21.
The Beavers ran for a ton of yards and are still in line for the Rose Bowl with games against Arizona and Oregon left on their schedule. There’s no way Oregon State fans are at all comfortable with this since both of those games are possible losses, especially the Civil War. It’s not a wrap yet, but this is going to be a tight team the last two weeks.
Phillips tells me USC “wouldn’t mind” going to a different bowl for once since they can’t make the national championship game and need Oregon State to lose for them to make the Rose Bowl. Yeah, they need variety. It’s like George Clooney waking up one day and saying, “you know what? I’m going to bang a girl that’s a seven instead of all the models I usually take home. Why? Because I’m George Clooney.” Win forever, boys. Win forever.
Record: 124-51, 83-89-5 ATS
(25) South Carolina (7-3) at (4) Florida (8-1) (-22.5)
Alas, Spurrier finally beating his old school wouldn’t get the Gators out of the SEC title game against Alabama. Actually, that’s a good thing since the Gators are basically the only team left in the SEC that can beat Alabama and truly give us the BCS chaos we deserve.
I wonder if somewhere, deep down, Florida fan still wishes Spurrier was their coach. They miss the fire, the visor, the attitude. Now they have the humorless, corporate Urban Meyer running things and sure they got a championship, but it’s just not the same Florida anymore, is it? Maybe that team died when Zook took over, but I still think Gator fan longs for it.
The Gamecocks have a good defense, so this game will probably be closer than it would be normally, but Spurrier still isn’t beating is old program.
Pick: Florida wins but South Carolina beats the spread.
Update: Florida 56 South Carolina 6.
When did South Carolina turn into solely a trick play team? They have no legitimate offense and their defense is good, but had absolutely no shot against a bigger, faster Florida squad. Spurrier is even back to rotating quarterbacks like with Doug Johnson, Noah Brindise, and Jesse Palmer. And then when Garcia and Smelley screw up, he brings them to the sideline and yells at them, but they both suck, so there isn’t going to be any improvement. Bad times for the other USC.
Record: 125-51, 83-90-5 ATS
Minnesota (7-3) at Wisconsin (5-5) (-13.5)
This is exactly the kind of game teams like Minnesota lose. They’re exceeding expectations and having a ton of totally unexpected success, but they’ve had some setbacks and now they’re playing a rivalry game on the road. Plus Eric Decker is out…I think. Make no mistake, Wisconsin is terrible this year. But I’ll be amazed if there’s a lot of scoring, so the Badgers will be able to stay in it.
Pick: Wisconsin wins but Minnesota beats the spread.
Update: Wisconsin 35 Minnesota 32.
Now Minnesota fans have to talk themselves into 7-4 even though that’s a wildly successful season for Minny. It’s amazing that this loss could acually be depressing for Gophers fans. That team has no business being as good as it is, but it’s impossible to appreciate when you lose a rivalry game. 7-4 doesn’t suck, but damn I hate losing rivalry games and Purdue and Indiana don’t hate each other half as much as Minnesota and Wisconsin do.
Record: 126-51, 84-90-5 ATS
(17) BYU (9-1) at Air Force (8-2) (+4)
The only reason this spread is even close is because BYU is on the road and it’s Air Force’s biggest game of the season. Air Force is good, especially for a service academy, but it’s hard to believe BYU would either take this game lightly or lay another egg on the road like the TCU game. I do like the Falcons’ defensive matchup against BYU’s offense, but BYU has dominated this series recently, despite some success from Air Force. Plus, we need BYU hot so the Utah game is interesting.
Pick: Brigham Young
Update: BYU 38 Air Force 24.
BYU won and we’re one game closer to Mormon Armageddon when they play Utah. That’s really the only reason I even picked this game. So yeah…
Record: 127-51, 85-90-5 ATS
Arizona (6-3) at Oregon (7-3) (-6)
I’ve only seen Arizona play against USC’s defense, so I can’t really say with confidence what it is, exactly, the Wildcats do on offense. I think they like to spread and throw, they hired a guy from Texas Tech after all, but they seem to love running the ball and playing defense. Oregon isn’t as good as they were last year, but they don’t suck either. Jeremiah Masoli has managed to keep their offense from sucking despite playing a cursed position for the Ducks. It’s miraculous they’ve won seven games with all their injuries.
Update: Oregon 55 Arizona 45.
Crazy shoot out game. Oregon was WAY up early, but Arizona showed the kind of spirit that makes me think they’ll give Oregon State a challenge when they play next week. Then again, they went way down to a team they could have played with and were just going for broke the rest of the game.
Oregon showed some real promise to beat Oregon State when they play a couple of weeks from tonight.They ran well and even got some good passing out of Jeremiah Masoli. But it only looks like they’ll be able to win a shootout against Oregon State because their defense isn’t very good against a diverse attack. Keola Antolin is a homeless man’s Jacquizz Rodgers, which means Rodgers could have a career day against the Ducks. Hold on to your hats, USC fans.
Record: 128-51, 86-90-5 ATS
(6) USC (8-1) at Stanford (5-5) (+24)
I realize Jim Harbaugh might have Pete Carroll’s number and Steve Sarkisian isn’t nearly as smart as Norm Chow. That said, this is the revenge game to end all revenge games. Stanford ruined USC’s championship homes last year, just like Oregon State did this year. I find it hard to believe Carroll will field an unmotivated team on Saturday night. Stanford is showing progress and isn’t terrible, but they’re up against a one-loss USC team, which is basically a force of nature.
Update: USC 45 Stanford 23.
JIM HARBAUGH IS A DIRTY COCKSUCKER WHO CLEARLY HAD MONEY ON THIS GAME. That last touchdown was garbage and it just so happened to put his team over the top to beat the spread. You tell me exactly what happened there with him calling time out with three seconds left. He had money on that game. No question.
Yes, eventually USC’s offense got on track so there isn’t a ton of worry heading into the Notre Dame and UCLA games. They ran well and were able to make some plays throwing. The big worry is this team comes out flatter than the tortillas Mark Sanchez will be eating on Thanksgiving every time they play. The offense can’t get anything going in the first half of their games and the defense doesn’t put things on lockdown until the second half. If they’re close, and they usually are, the other team isn’t scoring in the second half.
It’s like Steve Sarkisian can’t figure out what kind of offense he’s running. On some drives, they’re a finesse passing team that’s throwing short and trying to spread the field. On other drives, they’re a power-running team that’s dominating the line of scrimmage and getting all their star running backs a ton of carries. The one constant is Mark Sanchez who can’t find the consistency his more decorated predecessors had. He is the on-field representation of Sarkisian’s problems. Can’t decide what kind of guy he is, a classic drop back thrower with a big arm or a game-manager who just makes safe throws. USC’s offense needs to get over its split personality.
Record: 129-51, 86-91-5 ATS
Boston College (6-3) at (19) Florida State (7-2) (-6)
FSU just suspended most of their wide receivers, but they’re a running team this year so it doesn’t matter that much. I do respect Bobby Bowden’s willingness to suspend players no matter their importance to the team, though. Not sure that would have happened back in the Free Shoes University days. Why can’t some one do something about these teams having the exact same color scheme? It’s going to look like both programs’ spring game out there. I’m running thin on filler for this game.
Pick: Florida State
Update: BC 27 FSU 17.
Jeez, Bobby Bowden only suspended five receivers, not the whole defense. Boston College isn’t even that good, but Florida State managed to hand them the game. Well, Christian Ponder threw them the game, is the more accurate way to put it. Dude, you didn’t lose the two starting receivers. Throw it to them. Fucking Florida State.
Record: 129-52, 86-92-5 ATS
(23) Tulsa (8-1) at Houston (5-4) (+4)
Why, oh why, couldn’t Tulsa beat Arkansas so this could be the year’s most exciting game? If the Golden Hurricane were undefeated, this would be a guaranteed shootout and win a bunch of lame ESPN awards. Now, it’s just a C-USA game that doesn’t mean anything. There’ll surely be some highlights, but I’m not feeling any resistance from Houston anymore.
Update: Houston 70 Tulsa 30.
Well that’ll do it for Tulsa in 2008. It was fun for a while, and maybe we’ll see them in 2009. I guess this was always going to happen. The loss to Arkansas ended their chances of making a BCS game and once that happened there was pretty much a guarantee they’d lose a conference game. I don’t know if I thought it would be 70-30, but that’s how it goes. Especially since their defense isn’t so great. Thanks for coming, Golden Hurricane.
Record: 129-53, 86-93-5 ATS
UCLA (3-6) at Washington (0-9) (+7)
If the Bruins lose this game, the Neuheisel Era should come to an abrupt end. Enough said.
Update: UCLA 27 Washington 7.
Must be nice for UCLA to win a game they’re supposed to win. It’s a good start for the Neuheisel era, isn’t it? I said it to Phillips earlier: Neuheisel is a genius for just winning four games with that team. It’s been riddled by injuries, and well, lack of talent. But hey, maybe next year they can make the Sun Bowl!
Record through Week 12: 130-53, 87-93-5 ATS
Lesnar (-135) over Couture
A 97 year-old man cannot take a year off from fighting and then jump back in the ring against a guy like Brock Lesnar. Lesnar is going to out-athlete him and I find it difficult to believe Couture is strong enough to muscle him around like he did Gabriel Gonzaga. Don’t get me wrong. I love Randy Couture, and I’m going to be rooting for him on Saturday night. But there doesn’t seem to be much of a chance of him winning. I see an interesting fight that could be close, but not an outright win for Couture.
Update: Lesnar def. Couture (TKO Round 2)
Turns out Lesnar was just too much for Randy Couture. It takes balls just to fight at Couture’s age, but Lesnar wasn’t tailor-made for him like Gabriel Gonzaga and Tim Sylvia. He couldn’t use his strength against Lesnar and Couture isn’t enough of a jiu-jitsu expert to get an advantage on the ground. Plus, Lesnar always bull rushes and comes out fast, which Couture could slow down, but not with his current fighting style. I’m not really happy to be right about this one, but you could see it coming.
This loss puts the UFC into a weird position. More and more of its stars are losing or falling from grace in recent months, and these were the guys who were around to shepherd the UFC into its current popularity a few years ago. Rich Franklin, Matt Hughes, and especially Chuck Liddell all saw their time as the best fighters in their respective divisions effectively end, but there wasn’t time for the fans to really get to know the guys replacing them. So BJ Penn, George St. Pierre, Anderson Silva, Rashad Evans, and Brock Lesnar/Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira aren’t really stars even though they’re champions. Connoisseurs of MMA know Silva is the best in the world and Penn is great too, but we also know Fedor Emilianenko isn’t in the UFC, and it’s obvious every time there’s a heavyweight fight in the UFC. He’s the heavyweight gorilla in the room, so to speak.
What’s really sad is there are a ton of good fighters coming up, but they aren’t well-established names. When Penn and Kenny Florian fight next year, it’s going to be one of the best fights ever in the UFC, but it’s debatable how big a fight it’ll be to the fans. I really hope fans stick around to see a lot of these guys develop because in a few years, there will be a very, very deep talent pool in the UFC.
Some final thoughts from week 12:
Jermain Taylor beat Paul Lacy pretty handily despite getting knocked down, even though it wasn’t ruled a knockdown. I guess he’s on the comeback and wants to fight Joe Calzaghe. Thing is, Calzaghe is entering the “Bernard Hopkins” portion of his career where he says he’s retiring and then takes several fights just for the money. A fight against Taylor would be for a decent amount of money, but I don’t see what Calzaghe has to win as far as his legacy goes.
LSU came back on Troy in the second half, despite an especially horrible offensive effort from the Tigers. I’m reminded of another hurricane-game that actually did end in upset. As it happens, it was also the last time UCLA was a major player in the national championship race. They had to play Miami at the end of their season instead of earlier because of a hurricane that hit Florida. UCLA ended up losing and that was it for their title hopes. Sorry Cade McNown…and Booter, for that matter.
Finally, a shout out to San Diego’s own Jimmy Johnson, who is about to wrap up his third straight Winston Nextel Cup. All he’s got to do is finish 36th, or lead for a lap and finish 37th and he’s the man again. I’m just representing my hometown. Not as well as Jimmy, or pretty much anyone else who’s famous, but still. Good for him and this may lead to my actually owning a piece of NASCAR memorabilia, which is a big step in any boy’s life. And with that…
Good night, and good luck.